US Embassy Cable: THE SAUDI SHI’A: WHERE DO THEIR LOYALTIES LIE? #Sunni #Shi’a #SaudiArabia #Bahrain #Iraq
Summary
———-¶1. (S) Some Sunni Arab leaders, including Egypt’s President
Mubarak and Jordan’s King Abdullah, have recently publicly
questioned the loyalties of Arab Shi’a populations in the
Middle East. Privately, senior Saudi officials raise similar
concerns. Given the ongoing sectarian conflict in Iraq,
increasing regional tensions vis-a-vis Shi’a Iran, and the
tenuous status of Saudi Shi’a within their own country, the
question of whether Saudi Shi’a loyalties belong primarily
with Saudi Arabia - or, alternatively, to their
coreligionists elsewhere in the Gulf - is a timely one. It
is also of central concern to U.S. strategic interests in the
region, given the concentration of Saudi Arabia’s Shi’a
population in its oil producing areas.¶2. (S) Our conclusion, based on discussions with a broad
spectrum of Saudi Shi’a contacts over the past eight months,
is that most Saudi Shi’a remain committed to the agreement
reached between the Saudi Shi’a leadership and King Fahd in
1993-4, whereby Shi’a leaders agreed to pursue their goals
within the Kingdom’s political system in return for the
King’s promise to improve their situation. Saudi Shi’a have
deep religious ties to Iraq and Iran and are inspired by the
newfound religious freedom and political power of the Iraqi
Shi’a; they also have a lengthy history of persecution by the
Al-Saud and face continuing discrimination (ref B).
Nonetheless, their leaders still appear committed to working
for reform from within, a strategy that, thanks to King
Abdullah, is slowly bearing fruit. In our view, it would
require a major internal or external stimulus to move the
Saudi Shi’a toward confrontation with Riyadh. Such stimuli
could include a major shift in SAG policy or leadership, the
spread of uncontained sectarian violence to the Kingdom, or a
major change in regional security arrangements, especially
escalating regional conflict involving Shi’a (ref C). Absent
these circumstances, the vast majority of Saudi Shi’a are not
likely to demonstrate significant external political
loyalties, either to Iran or to any inchoate notion of a
“Shi’a crescent.” End summary.
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